Status	Research ongoing
Start date	Spring 2024
Finish date	Autumn 2025

Background

Welsh communities and infrastructure face a range of risks including:

• The impact of more frequent flooding and coastal erosion
• The impact of extreme and rising temperatures, high winds, lightning and precipitation
• The impacts from changes to the natural environment brought about by climate change.

Some of these risks may make it difficult to maintain infrastructure and protect it from worsening weather conditions and events like continued increased average temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves.

The UK Climate Change Committee (UKCCC) has warned that annual temperatures in Wales are expected to rise between approximately 1.2°C by the 2050s, and between 1.3 and 2.3°C by the 2080s from a 1981-2000 baseline. Our climate will shift towards wetter winters and drier summers. In winter, rainfall is expected to increase by approximately 6% by the 2050s from a 1981-2000 baseline. Conversely, summer rainfall is expected to decrease by approximately 15% by the 2050s and by between 18% to 26% by the 2080s.

The majority of the Welsh population live in coastal areas, with some communities existing below the high tideline. Key pieces of national infrastructure are located within metres of the tideline. Wales’ coastal communities are at risk because of continued sea-level rises. Using scenarios for Cardiff, the Climate Change Committee expects the sea-level to rise by between approximately 22 and 28 cm by the 2050s and by approximately 43 to 76 cm by the 2080s. However, it is clear that existing defences do not sufficiently manage the existing risk of coastal erosion, and climate change and sea level rise will further reduce their efficacy.

Commissioners leading this work are  Helen Armstrong and Stephen Brooks

To take this work forward, we have identified two research streams which will look at different aspects of these conversations. Both projects are being guided by a Project Reference Group of external experts to provide feedback and challenge where necesary.

Engaging Communities

The impact of climate change will mean that our infrastructure will need to be planned and delivered in a different way. NICW wants to explore how different communities can respond and engage with decision making around infrastructure development and climate adaptation. We would like to know what practices work well with different sectors of the community and explore how these techniques work, practically, in a place-based environment.

As part of this process, NICW would like to hear the voices that we don’t normally hear, to explore and harness people’s creativity around the question of how we can adapt and thrive in a changing climate in 2050 (and beyond to 2100). Our Year 2 project on flooding developed a Vision for the Future in adapting to Climate Change.

This research, being led by the School of International Futures seeks to bring this vision for the future to life in a place-based environment where communities are actively engaged in a variety of ways.

Using the Grangetown area of Cardiff, a community used to proactive engagement with established networks, we will use local organisations / partnerships wherever possible to undertake this work with us.

The project will help infrastructure planners and providers develop creative approaches to engaging diverse communities in considering how to best adapt to the changing climate and have infrastructure that supports our society over the coming decades.

Resilient Infrastructure

We know that our infrastructure providers are already thinking about the impact of climate change on their service delivery. However, we understand that not all infrastructure providers are operating at the same level and are consulting the public separately on their plans, potentially leading to a diluted message to communities on the cumulative impacts of climate change and how it might impact them.

In addition, which climate change projections are our infrastructure providers using for their plans? Are they sharing data? Are other projections (such as population growth) considering the potential climate impacts which are then used in spatial planning to take strategic decisions about growth and infrastructure provision in the future.

NICW would like to establish if any work has yet been undertaken to see what the outcomes of previous climate change projections have been. Has, for example, the trend for actual data observed been to the higher end of previous projections. What can we learn from this for the future and how should this be communicated to both the public, in engaging on our spatial plans?

NICW is interested in how previous climate change projections have been used (for decision making) and communicated (to the public). Our hypothesis is that actual data observed has been to the higher end of previous projections, but infrastructure providers (and public bodies) may plan using median projections. To what extent is this assumption correct, and how has it impacted on decision-making and communication with the public?

This research, being led by Arup, will carry out a review of the current situation amongst Welsh infrastructure providers and spatial planners on what conversations they are having with communities on how climate change might impact them. In the Welsh context, we are curious to know if they are using the WFG Act Ways of Working in their approaches.

NICW Report

These two research workstreams, along with additional evidence will be brought together to form a report to the Welsh Government in the autumn of 2025.

For further information, please contact: NationalInfrastructureCommissionforWales@gov.wales