This is a personal blog post written by Nick Tune, one of the two lead Commissioners for the NICW renewable energy project.
The report
On March 3, 2025, the Welsh Government published the Energy Generation in Wales 2023 report offering a comprehensive review of energy generation and consumption across Wales. The report highlights that renewable sources now meet 53% of Wales’s electricity demand, with a total renewable capacity of 3,663 MW.
In 2023, 109 MW of new renewable electricity capacity was installed—a significant rise from 38 MW in 2022 and the second-highest annual increase since 2019. However, this falls well short of the 966 MW peak in 2015. Renewable electricity output has grown just 5% over five years, from 7.4 TWh in 2018 to 7.8 TWh in 2023.
While this 5% increase is a positive step, it is far below the pace needed to meet Wales’s Net Zero pathway. The report projects that electricity consumption will double by 2035—from 14.8 TWh in 2023 to 29 TWh—driven by electrification of heat and transport. Consequently, 2023’s renewable generation (58% of current consumption, including losses) equates to just 27% of the 2035 forecast.
To hit the Welsh Government’s target of 100% renewable electricity by 2035, generation must nearly quadruple in a decade—a daunting gap underscored by zero new wind capacity added in 2023.
NICW’s perspective and recommendations
In 2023, NICW released our report “Preparing Wales for a Renewable Energy 2050“, outlining critical steps to accelerate this transition. Our recommendations remain urgent:
A Clear Vision by 2025
We urged the Welsh Government to deliver a 2050 energy vision, strategy, and action plan by 2025, detailing renewable production and grid development. This has not materialised, and the Welsh Government has confirmed no near-term plans to produce it. Without this roadmap—specifying what infrastructure is needed, where, and when—Wales risks missing its own targets. A step-change is needed in planning and execution.
Pooled Planning Resource by 2025
We proposed a shared pool of planning expertise to streamline policy articulation, public engagement, and application reviews. Discussions are underway within the Welsh Government, but delays persist. NICW presses for swift action to cut approval times and unlock capacity.
Strategic Grid Planning by 2025
Grid planning must shift from pure functionality to a policy-driven, long-term strategy tailored to Wales’s needs. Current approaches lag behind the scale of renewable deployment required.
Grid Access Reform by 2025
We called on Ofgem to overhaul grid connection processes, prioritizing rapid deployment, policy alignment, and innovative solutions. The new National Energy Systems Operator (NESO), paired with Westminster’s political momentum, offers hope for UK-wide grid progress—but Wales-specific action must accelerate.
The Path Ahead
The Welsh Government’s 100% renewable electricity goal by 2035 appears increasingly out of reach. The Celtic Sea floating wind projects (4.5 GW potential) won’t be operational until the early 2030s. Achieving the target will require significant new offshore wind, plus a dramatic ramp-up in onshore wind and solar PV, in addition to any Celtic Sea deployments. In 2023’s zero-wind-capacity year, this feels distant.
NICW remains committed to supporting Wales’s renewable ambitions. However, without urgent policy clarity, planning reform, and grid modernization, the quadrupling of capacity needed by 2035 will remain aspirational. We call on the Welsh Government to act decisively—starting with our 2025 recommendations—to turn ambition into reality.