A long-term perspective

What if the transport decisions we make today could shape a more just, inclusive, and resilient Wales by the year 2100?

Transport is more than a means of movement. It enables connection, unlocks access, and shapes opportunity. In many ways, it reflects the values of a society: who we prioritise, which communities are connected, and what kind of future we want to build. In the face of accelerating climate change, widening inequalities, and demographic shifts, transport is a key arena for embedding climate justice in our policy responses. By 2100, the way we move people, goods, and services will help define who we become as a nation.

The National Infrastructure Commission for Wales (NICW) operates with an unusually long view, considering issues up to 80 years ahead. In a world shaped by short-term political and financial cycles, this is a radical and necessary stance. Most infrastructure, particularly transport systems, has a lifespan far beyond the generation that builds it. Roads, railways, bridges, and digital networks constructed today will likely still be used in 2100; or at least, constructed in order that they can be adapted for continued use over their lifespan.

But how do we plan for a century ahead, in a world marked by disruption?

That was the challenge addressed by the Futures Transport Mapping Project, a collaboration between NICW, the School of International Futures (SOIF), and around 30 practitioners from transport, planning, and futures disciplines. The aim was simple, but bold: to explore what kinds of transport systems will support fair, thriving communities in a future shaped by climate shocks, migration, technological change, and shifting public values.

Rethinking Connectivity

Transport infrastructure spans everything from a dropped kerb to the Severn Tunnel. It includes roads, rails, paths, ports—and increasingly, digital tools that support movement, coordination, and access. This broader concept of “connectivity” is why ideas such as Triple Access Planning (TAP) are gaining traction. TAP integrates three forms of access—physical mobility, digital connectivity, and spatial proximity—and challenges the outdated “predict and provide” model in favour of a more strategic “decide and provide” approach.

Even with these new tools, imagining transport infrastructure in 2100 is a daunting task. The future will not simply be a linear extension of today. Climate impacts, population patterns, and social expectations will reshape the terrain entirely.

The methodology

To explore this, the project used a structured, participatory foresight process developed by SOIF. The process combined scenario building, place-based analysis, and strategic dialogue across two workshops, one in person, one online.

Summary

Grounding the present	Participants reviewed UK Net Zero 2050 scenarios and adapted them to a Welsh context.
Projecting to 2100	Using signals of change, demographic trends, and long-wave social dynamics, participants extended these scenarios forward.
Building 4 divergent futures	The team co-developed four distinct, internally coherent scenarios for Wales in 2100.
Testing against real places	Scenarios were applied to four Welsh towns to understand local implications for transport and resilience.
Linking to policy goals	Participants assessed how each scenario aligned with the Well-being of Future Generations Act.
Developing strategic options	Interventions were categorised as robust, hedging, speculative, or redundant across multiple futures
Extracting actionable insight	Participants identified priority actions for the next 5–20 years to influence longer-term outcomes.

Each scenario imagines a different Wales in 2100—with varying relationships to infrastructure, mobility, and justice.

This Land is Your Land

In this future, Wales embraces radical democracy and subsidiarity. Local communities co-design transport systems. Infrastructure focuses on sustainability, with greenways, electric ferries, and shared e-bikes playing central roles. Transport is no longer a luxury but a right, embedded in community life.

Justice lens: Local transport becomes a tool for empowerment and inclusion, enabling resilience from the ground up.

Living in a Materials World

Rapid innovation in lightweight, programmable materials transforms infrastructure. Modular, rebuildable transport systems reduce emissions and adapt quickly to environmental stresses. Wales becomes a global leader in sustainable construction.

Justice lens: Access to innovation must be inclusive. Community capacity and education are essential to ensure these benefits are widely shared.

Creatures of Love

Wales sees an influx of migration and a cultural shift toward ecological reverence. Movement is local, slow, and low-impact. Communities are networked through drones, micro-transit, and green corridors, emphasising harmony with the environment.

Justice lens: A redefined notion of mobility considers cultural and spiritual access alongside physical movement.

High Water Blues

After decades of climate shocks, infrastructure is in decline. Mobility is limited and improvised—powered by frugal innovation, recycled parts, and “cobots” (collaborative robots). Community cohesion and adaptability are crucial to survival.

Justice lens: Resilience depends on past investment in skills, community infrastructure, and social systems.

Transport in Four Welsh Towns

To make these scenarios tangible, participants applied them to four towns—Penybont-ar-Ogwr (Bridgend), Ystrad Mynach, Aberteifi (Cardigan), and Blaenau Ffestiniog—each chosen for their diversity of geography, demography, and transport systems.

Ystrad Mynach
With one of the UK’s densest active travel networks, this community shows how old mining infrastructure can become a climate-resilient asset. But with climate change comes a new threat: increased vulnerability of rail connections, and landslips from saturated spoil heaps.

Aberteifi
As a rural coastal town, its future may depend on self-sufficiency, drones, and electric vessels. Limited access to central infrastructure makes local innovation critical.

Blaenau Ffestiniog
Strong Welsh-speaking identity and deep-rooted community ownership allow this post-industrial town to build resilient, adaptive systems. It exemplifies how cultural solidarity can support practical mobility solutions.

Penybont-ar-Ogwr
A larger town dependent on the M4 and mainline rail, and potentially susceptible to flooding, Penybont-ar-Ogwr’s future may rely on reconfiguring infrastructure to avoid risk zones and adopt innovative materials. Equity in adaptation is essential to avoid deepening spatial inequalities.

Actions for Transport Futures

While the scenarios explore 2100, the real value lies in what we do next in order to help shape long-term outcomes. The report identifies seven strategic actions to guide transport decisions in the coming decades:

1. Rethink transport growth assumptions in the face of climate constraints.
2. Invest in local, accessible infrastructure, such as paths, greenways, and cycle routes. They are likely to be increasingly resilient strategic assets.
3. Ensure that the community voice is incorporated into transport planning and design.
4. Design transport systems for repair, adaptability, and redundancy.
5. Support community ownership of physical and data infrastructure.
6. Community resilience should be an important component of place-based resilience strategies
7. Build learning networks between towns to share solutions and experiences, and to help prepare communities for a sense of loss as part of shaping a new future

Wales at the Vanguard

Wales already has a unique legislative foundation in the Well-being of Future Generations Act, which requires public bodies to plan for the long term and prioritise sustainability, equality, and cultural heritage. The Act provides a shared opportunity to embed futures thinking into policy, and to make transport planning a central lever for climate justice and community empowerment.

Transport is never neutral. It expresses our values; who is seen, who is served, who is connected. As we face the next decades of uncertainty, we must design systems that narrow divides within society rather than widen them.

Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the Understanding Welsh Places project, carried out by the IWA, and funded by five organisations, for helping identify relevant Welsh communities for our scenario discussions.