Net Zero in Wales

Net zero is no longer just a climate policy; it has become a concept that reflects the hopes, tensions, and contradictions of our time. In Wales, the journey toward net zero by 2050 is both a legal requirement and a test of our collective imagination. It asks whether a small nation, with devolved powers and a proud cultural identity, can lead by example in decarbonising, not only efficiently, but also justly.

The 2010 Climate Change Strategy for Wales embedded a policy goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 3% annually. Wales committed to a target date of 2050 for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% (compared with 1990 levels) through the Environment Act 2016. This target was made more ambitious in 2021 when the Welsh Government adopted the UK Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) recommendation to move to a full 100% reduction by 2050. The goal is clear. But how we get there, and whether we do so in a way that earns trust and supports the well-being of future generations, is far more complex.

So far, the signs are encouraging. Wales met its first statutory carbon target and is on course to exceed the 2025 benchmark of a 37% emissions reduction. It’s important to recognise that this 37% figure was originally calculated under the older, less ambitious 80% framework. Surpassing the 2025 target is a requirement to have any chance of attaining a 100% reduction by 2050.

Yet even with progress, the CCC has highlighted sectors that require further attention: transport, agriculture, and land use. These are not just areas of emissions; they are also areas of identity, tradition, and livelihood. Any intervention must be both technically sound and socially legitimate. In a country where landscape, language, and localness matter deeply, policy must be grounded in the lived realities and circumstances of the population it seeks to serve.

Net Zero 2035

The Welsh Government-Plaid Cymru Cooperation Agreement in 2021 set up an independent expert group to explore the possibility of reaching net zero not by 2050, but by 2035. Members included sustainability professionals, educators, and system thinkers. NICW Commissioner Dr Eurgain Powell was a member of the group. Dr David Clubb, Chair of NICW, was an observer to the group.

The expert group’s approach was not to offer a top-down blueprint, but to examine what would need to change in education, infrastructure, agriculture, heat, electricity, and connectivity to bring net zero closer.

Their proposals are wide-ranging and grounded in community potential: forming Climate Action Groups in every school; mainstreaming climate and nature literacy in the workforce; strengthening local food supply chains; supporting farmers through a just transition; and designing infrastructure for a lifestyle where work, rest, and play do not depend on the private car. The group did not model the impact of these proposals on emissions pathways, and so it’s unclear whether net zero emissions in 2035 is practically achievable. But what they offered was arguably more important: a vision of how the work of decarbonisation could deepen resilience and restore connection, rather than simply cut carbon.

A different perspective

But not everyone shares this optimism. In 2024, a significant intervention came from Simon Roberts and Colin Axon of Brunel University London. Their report, What Price Near-Zero Emissions?, used whole-economy modelling to show that, under current policy trajectories, the UK is likely to achieve only a 57% reduction in emissions by 2050 — far short of net zero. Rather than abandoning ambition, they suggest revising expectations toward a more physically and economically plausible ‘near-zero’ target. Crucially, this is not a call for inaction. Their analysis outlines clear, actionable priorities: accelerating offshore wind infrastructure, investing in ammonia fuels for aviation, improving heat pump adoption, and — most importantly — being transparent with the public about the real economic trade-offs of a just and sustainable transition.

Roberts and Axon remind us that decarbonisation is not merely an engineering challenge; it is a social contract. That contract has three interdependent parts: the uptake of low-carbon technologies such as EVs and heat pumps; behavioural shifts toward demand reduction (like reduced flying or increased use of public transport); and the collective acceptance of direct and indirect costs associated with investing in a new economic model. If this contract is made without public conversation or participation, if people are asked to change their lives without being part of the story, it will inevitably fray.

That fraying found political expression in 2025 through Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, who dismissed the 2050 net zero target as “fantasy politics.” Her critique resonated with some: that net zero is an elite-driven agenda, disconnected from everyday economic realities, and indifferent to the cost of living pressures faced by ordinary people. In emotional terms, it was a powerful intervention that elevated anger, exhaustion, and fear. These sentiments are real and deserve to be acknowledged.

Yet there is a difference between naming pain and offering a path through it. Badenoch’s position critiques the present, but leaves the future blank. It offers no alternative trajectory, no way to meet today’s needs without compromising the well-being of tomorrow. In doing so, it risks severing the connection between current choices and future generations; a connection that is not only moral, but legally enshrined in the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act, and foundational to the very concept of sustainability.

This framing also implicitly devalues the lives of future generations. While reducing investment in sustainable infrastructure today may offer short-term flexibility in political prioritisation, it inevitably increases the long-term burden, economically, environmentally, and socially. The principle of intergenerational justice demands that we act now to ensure we pass on a Wales that is not only habitable, but flourishing.

The costs of inaction are significant and avoidable. If we delay investment in sustainability and net zero, future generations in Wales will inherit a legacy of biodiversity loss, soil degradation, coastal erosion, and worsening climate impacts. The economic burden will rise, as emergency adaptation measures, energy insecurity, and missed industrial opportunities take their toll. Wales risks falling behind in a global economy that is rapidly reconfiguring around clean technologies and green investment.

But perhaps the most profound risks are social and cultural. Inaction deepens inequality, undermines institutional trust, and fractures the emotional and moral contract between generations. The Well-being of Future Generations Act offers a rare and visionary framework to prevent this, but its promise depends on political courage and sustained commitment.

There is a real danger when political narratives frame climate action as a zero-sum imposition. They turn what must be a shared journey into a contested battleground. They replace action with delay, and dialogue with polarisation. And in doing so, they endanger not just the climate, but the cohesion, dignity, and democratic strength of the society we leave behind.

NICW’s thoughts

We have previously provided clear recommendations to Welsh Government on how to accelerate the transition to renewable energy — not only in terms of generation capacity, but also in how that capacity is governed and owned. One of our core proposals is that energy developments should deliver tangible local benefits and be shaped through meaningful community ownership, including opportunities for direct investment in the projects themselves.

While initiatives like Trydan Gwyrdd Cymru show considerable promise in bridging the gap between communities and energy infrastructure, we believe the Welsh Government has missed a broader opportunity to embed this more imaginative, participatory approach across the energy sector as a whole. Too often, large-scale renewable energy projects are delivered through narrow infrastructure frameworks, with limited regard for who owns the assets, who benefits from them, and who feels connected to their success. This is not only a missed economic opportunity, it is a missed opportunity to build long-term social capital.

We argue that embedding local ownership and engagement in renewable energy development is not just a matter of fairness, it is a strategic imperative. It provides a pathway to public consent, democratic legitimacy, and a more resilient, adaptive transition. Wales could position itself as a pioneer in this regard, demonstrating how place-based, distributed ownership can underpin a national energy transformation rooted in trust and equity.

Our core project activity during 2024–25 has focused on exploring how communities and infrastructure providers perceive and respond to long-term climate impacts. This work, due to report in Autumn 2025, will provide a set of practical recommendations for Welsh Government and others. Our engagement to date has shown that, given the opportunity, people are not only interested in infrastructure and long-term futures, they are eager to participate in shaping them.

At the same time, we must acknowledge the complex realities that intersect with emissions reductions. The recent closure of the last blast furnace at Port Talbot is likely to contribute significantly to Wales meeting its interim climate targets, potentially reducing national emissions by around 15% in a single act. Yet this comes at a profound cost: the loss of thousands of jobs, shockwaves across the supply chain, and deep uncertainty in the communities affected.

Our Deputy Chair, Dr Jenifer Baxter, has previously written on the broader implications of this closure, not least the social and emotional toll it carries. While it may accelerate headline emissions reductions, we would urge caution against ‘banking’ this gain without considering its human context. Efforts to decarbonise all other sectors must continue with urgency, particularly as the achievability of net zero by 2050 remains contested, both technically and politically.

And yet, Wales holds a unique advantage. Perhaps more than any other part of the UK, it possesses a legislative and cultural framework capable of resisting the polarisation that increasingly surrounds climate policy. The Well-being of Future Generations Act is not merely a statutory instrument; it is a profound ethical commitment — one that orients public policy towards intergenerational fairness, resilience, and inclusion. It reminds us that the success of climate action is inseparable from the cultivation of trust, justice, and belonging.

The critical question, then, is not simply whether we reach net zero by 2050, or even by 2035. It is how we get there. Will we honour the relationship between government and citizen? Will we build bridges between present decisions and future well-being? Will we be honest about the trade-offs, and ensure that participation goes beyond consultation to encompass shared responsibility and ownership?

Because net zero cannot succeed as a distant metric alone. It must become a collective mission, rooted in values, powered by inclusion, and carried forward through trust. It must be, at its heart, an invitation to build something better, together.