Nick Tune, one of the two Commissioners who led the work of the National Infrastructure Commission for Wales on Renewable Energy, talks about the future of the electricity grid system in Wales.
On March 19, 2024, The National Grid Energy Systems Operator (ESO) unveiled “Beyond 2030: A National Blueprint for a Decarbonized Electricity System in Great Britain.” This publication holds profound significance for Wales and the broader UK populace because it outlines strategies to accommodate a projected 64% surge in electricity demand by 2035.
Grid upgrade is a pivotal mechanism in facilitating renewable energy generation, essential for achieving a net zero UK by 2050. For Wales in particular, grid could serve as either a hindrance or a catalyst in achieving the ambitious goal of 100% renewable energy generation by 2035.
From a national standpoint the ESO report and its associated plans are indispensable. They instil confidence within the energy sector, prompting the initiation of crucial planning for net zero energy generation schemes that are imperative for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Nevertheless, Wales faces a significant challenge if it is to meet its 2035 100% renewable electricity production target. This is due to the lack of grid infrastructure throughout the country. Examples include the lack of availability in Mid Wales (where large onshore wind is planned) and the lack of connection between North and South Wales. South Wales has a requirement for a henaced connection to the proposed Celtic Sea and major upgrades along the south wales corridor to transmit the energy generated at the Celtic Sea and the significant enhancements required for the electrification of Port Talbot Steelworks.
With these major grid upgrades required, the lack of specificity within the National Grid ESO plans is of concern. The plan has a conspicuous absence of commitment to additional infrastructure requirements beyond prior recommendations, such as limited voltage increases and existing network upgrades in North Wales, along with a proposed offshore western link from Scotland to Wales. While the document has an acknowledgment of the need for a new connection between north and south Wales to unlock renewable energy development in mid Wales, the details remain scant. Additionally, the document makes mention of a grid connection to the planned floating wind developments in the Celtic Sea, yet the decision on whether the connection will be via Wales Wales or north Devon is still to be made.
The pressing issue at hand is the absence of concrete plans for grid upgrades spanning north to south Wales. Urgent capacity enhancements are needed in mid Wales to facilitate the development of planned onshore wind energy projects, while south Wales grapples with grid congestion. A potential solution lies in routing the Celtic Sea connector through south west Wales, enabling a comprehensive upgrade of the South Wales grid, thereby liberating capacity for expanded renewable energy generation throughout south Wales. However, the lack of detailed information exacerbates the challenge of meeting renewable energy targets with each passing month.
In 2023 NICW recommended that Welsh Government adopt a strategic approach to energy development to include grid infrastructure. NICW made two additional recommendations specifically for the grid, one for Ofgem and the other for Welsh Government.
Implementing these recommendations would provide greater clarity on need and timescales, empowering both public and private sector organisations to work towards meeting targets.
Map of reinforcements Wales download (nationalgrideso.com)
Image: Amy Taylor